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Any changes in the radiative balance of the earth, whether due to human-induced increased concentrations of greenhouse gases tend to alter atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, their associated circulation and hence the weather patterns. Notice how the shading returns to the same location on the order of about 45 days. It is part of Much of the work done at IRI is related to climate variability, which is defined by the as “variations in the mean state and other statistics of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales, beyond individual weather events.” In simpler terms, variability is the range of climate compared to its average. It is a longer-term source of variability, with only a few shifts between its warm and cool phases in the 20th century.

Both effects magnify the changes in the probability of extreme events on the tails of the distribution. La Niña conditions (also part of the ENSO cycle) occur when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters are substantially cooler than usual (see Figure 1, bottom).s of ENSO on regional climate patterns are found in those areas closest to the tropical Pacific, but El Niño and La Niña are such powerful forces that they can shift seasonal temperature a that the occurrence of floods, droughts and other climate-related disasters is not statistically different among years with El Niño, neutral or La Niña conditions, such disasters may be more predictable, allowing decision makers to take action and prepare for such events. While PDO also has a warm phase and cool phase, the timescale on which PDO fluctuates is not as defined as ENSO (it can persist in either phase for anywhere from 10-40 years).

Armed with an informative prediction, decision makers in climate-affected sectors like agriculture, health and disaster risk reduction can use the climate information to prepare for a period of climate that is likely to be above or below normal. One of the most well understood sources of climate variability is the tilt of the earth, which causes the seasonal changes in climate in the northern and southern hemispheres. Source: Figure 3: The two phases of PDO as exhibited by sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific.

There are lots of uncertainties involved in climatic models in relating ENSO’s response to global warming. That’s why at this stage we cannot establish the strong relationship between temperature rise due to GHG and the extreme weather events, such as Storm Alexa in the Middle East or Sunanda Swain is a senior environment and sustainability consultant who worked in the environment, health and safety, quality and sustainability areas in various operational sectors such as engineering and environmental consultancies, government regulatory agencies and industrial manufacturing companies, mostly in Australia and in the UAE. Many of the causes of climate change are external to the Earth system. They can, however, use statistical methods and physically-based climate models to find links between, for example, SSTs in one area of the ocean and patterns of wetter, drier, warmer or cooler climate in another area (usually over land). The ENSO was asymmetric in the multi-decadal scale until 1980 and then there was breakdown on the asymmetric ENSO teleconnection when the SEQ region had a period of heavy rain fall associated with La Nina episodic oscillation. The positive phase usually results in more frequent and stronger winter storms tracking across the Atlantic, and thus warm and wet winters in Europe. Research also shows that the AMO  influences hurricane activity in the Atlantic. La Nina events bring above average rainfall to the inland tropics and northern Australian region. The vast amount of energy held in our oceans means that even slight changes in SSTs can shift certain climate patterns. Much more on ENSO Moving north a few thousand miles, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is defined by sea surface temperature anomalies in the higher latitudes of the Pacific. an area of clouds, winds and rains) that propagates around the world, always from west to east and originating in the eastern Indian Ocean. But there are others, most of which are associated with higher or lower than normal sea-surface temperatures or pressures in defined areas. The NAO changes phase more frequently than many other climate oscillations, and it varies on timescales from days to decades to points in between. Below are descriptions of some of the major climate variability oscillations scientists have identified. The term PDO was coined in 1996 by Steven Hare, a researcher studying the influence of the Pacific on Alaskan salmon fisheries. Others are part of the Earth system but external to the atmosphere. Source: Figure 6: An animation illustrating the organization of the MJO into its enhanced and suppressed convective phases during an MJO event during the spring of 2005.